Republican nomination up in the air

Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have each chosen a different Republican candidate to represent them in the 2012 presidential election. With Newt Gingrich winning 40.4 percent in South Carolina, Mitt Romney winning 39.3 percent in New Hampshire, and Rick Santorum as the official winner of Iowa (as announced by the Iowa Republican Party), all eyes are on Florida, the largest state to vote so far in the caucus, according to the Associated Press. The Florida primaries are on Tuesday, Jan. 31.

Professors' take on why Gingrich won

Christopher Larimer, associate professor of political science at the University of Northern Iowa, explained why he believes voters have not made a concise decision.

"I think, for a lot of Republicans, they look back to 2008 and see that Barack Obama was able to take out someone who was considered the front runner — Hillary Clinton — because he generates so much excitement and really made the general election for him," Larimer said. "I think they're looking to try and replicate that model. Who can we get that's exciting? So I think they're really battling in their minds — who aligns with us in terms of policy and who really excites us?"

Donna Hoffman, UNI associate professor of political science and the head of the department of political science, believes the long process of the caucus is the reason for an indecisive vote.

"You have another state go and another state go; it draws that out so voters in other states that go later may not even be paying attention to some of the earlier states," Hoffman said. "The other thing we know about this nomination process (is that) the people we generally consider to be independents, they don't start paying attention until the national conventions arrive anyway. So you just have partisans and, in this case, Republican partisans that do these particular events and pay attention."

Larimer said he thinks the residents of South Carolina were looking for a candidate other than Mitt Romney to choose.

"He (Gingrich) did well in the debates; he was someone who could excite them," Larimer said. "He expressed a lot of views that conservative voters hold, in the sense of vigorously attacking Obama and his policies and attacking the media. I think that was a popular play."

The upcoming primary

Larimer believes the best way for Gingrich to score a win once again is through the use of campaign money and an appeal to independents.

"Spend money," Larimer said. "Spend money on ads, do well on debates and really try to be both electable and exciting. Newt Gingrich was able to do that in seven days in South Carolina. (It will be) interesting to see with Florida voters who are more moderate, if he can do the same thing there too."

Hoffman said Gingrich "needs to work on his organization."

"His campaign has not been well organized," Hoffman said. "He won South Carolina largely on the basis of his performance in the two debates. The most recent debate in Florida did not have audience participation, and he was very annoyed with that because that was one of the things that helped him."

Hoffman said she believes Paul and Santorum, who together only garnered 30 percent of the South Carolina votes, stand little chance in the future of the race.

"They've served a useful purpose for Republican voters to bring up a lot of issues, but I don't think they are in the running as of this moment," Hoffman said. "The question with Paul is whether he'll eventually make a third party run for the presidency, which he hasn't ruled out."

The role of Colbert's "Super-PAC"

Even though he had previously dropped out of the race, Herman Cain was able to place fifth with the help of Comedy Central comedian and host of "The Colbert Report," Stephen Colbert. Striving to bring some humor, but also to bring light to election fundraising issues, Colbert endorsed Cain in South Carolina and helped Cain by using his Super-PAC "The Definitely Not Coordinating with Stephen Colbert Super-PAC."

"It's useful in two senses: that it provides a comedic outlet perhaps, but it also draws attention to the campaign financing changes," Hoffman said. "Because campaign financing is very complex, and it's very difficult to understand. It's not a burning issue for most people. But when a comedian brings it to people's attention in this way and makes a joke of it, but yet there's a serious aspect to it, I think that's useful for educational purposes in some ways, and people's attention is drawn to that."

The next president

While both Hoffman and Larimer agree the GOP campaigns have narrowed into a two-person race, both have different views on who's going to win the nomination and run against Obama on Tuesday, Nov. 6 when the presidential elections take place.

"I think a lot of it will turn on who wins in Florida," Larimer said. "If Romney wins by five, maybe eight to 10 percentage points, then he's fine. If it's a close race with Gingrich or he would somehow win, then it's certainly up in the air."

Hoffman believes in the end, Romney will win and he has a chance of winning the 2012 presidential election.

"It depends on what happens with the economy by and large, and a lot of other things could happen that we can't factor in, but economic concerns are very significant," Hoffman said. "If the economy keeps ticking up like it's doing, and job employment keeps ticking down like it slowly is doing, then Obama is in a better position, but he's not in a good position in that regard for the general election. It depends on who the Republicans' nominate (is), and it depends on what happens between now and then."